Economic Analysis

AI & The Future Demand for Legal Services

An interactive exploration of how artificial intelligence is reshaping the economics of legal work—and which practice areas face the most pressure.

44%
of legal tasks are potentially automatable by generative AI
Goldman Sachs, 2023
92%
of civil legal problems receive inadequate or no legal help (US)
Legal Services Corp., 2022
$28.5B
Alternative Legal Services Provider market size
Thomson Reuters, 2023

The Economic Question

When AI reduces the time needed to complete legal work, what happens to demand for lawyers? The answer depends on a concept economists call price elasticity of demand—how much the quantity of legal services demanded changes when prices change.

⚖️

Inelastic Demand

When clients must have legal help regardless of price—bet-the-company litigation, criminal defense, regulatory investigations. Price drops don't dramatically increase volume; they increase lawyer margins.

📊

Elastic Demand

When clients are price-sensitive and have alternatives—routine contracts, basic formations, DIY-able documents. Lower prices can dramatically increase the volume of matters tackled.

🎯

The AI Effect

AI doesn't affect all legal work equally. It crushes tasks that are standardized and text-heavy, while amplifying lawyers' capacity for judgment and strategy.

Interactive Simulator

Explore how AI might affect your practice economics. Adjust the inputs below to see how changes in automation, pricing strategy, and client sensitivity interact.

⚙️ Inputs
Pre-fills typical values for this type of work
$1,000
$200 $50,000
50
5 500
3 hrs
1 hr 80 hrs
70%
0% 100%
60%
0% 80%
1.5
Low (0.1) Mid (1.0) High (3.0)
50%
0% (keep all) 100%+
📈 Projected Impact
Hours Per Matter
1.74
▼ 42% faster
Matters Per Year
71
▲ 42% more
Annual Revenue
$56K
▲ 12%
Annual Profit
$57K
▲ 14%
Metric Before AI After AI
Price per matter $1,000 $790
Matters per year 50 71
Hours per matter 3 1.74
Total hours per year 150 124
Hours freed up 26 hrs
Demand Curve Visualization

💡 What This Means

In this scenario, AI lets you earn more while working fewer total hours. Because your clients are price-sensitive (high elasticity), even a modest price cut produces a significant increase in volume. The sweet spot is sharing some AI savings with clients to capture more of the expanding market.

Which Practice Areas Get Squeezed First?

Not all legal work responds the same way to AI disruption. Practice areas vary dramatically in their price elasticity and automability—and that determines who feels pressure first.

AI Pressure Spectrum

🔴 High Squeeze 🟡 Medium Squeeze 🟢 Low Squeeze 🔵 AI-Enabled Growth
High Squeeze

Commoditized B2C / SMB Work

Routine, standardized work where clients have many alternatives—including AI itself.

  • Website ToS, Privacy Policies
  • Simple NDAs, contractor agreements
  • Basic LLC formations
  • Uncontested family matters
  • Simple wills and POAs
Medium Squeeze

Mid-Market Commercial

Pattern-based but with meaningful stakes. Clients want quality but watch costs closely.

  • SaaS agreements, DPAs
  • Series A / seed round docs
  • Commercial leases
  • Vendor and customer contracts
  • Employment agreements
Low Squeeze

High-Stakes / Bespoke

Judgment-intensive work where stakes are high and substitutes are few. AI amplifies capacity.

  • Bet-the-company litigation
  • Major M&A, PE, capital markets
  • Regulatory investigations
  • Complex cross-border structuring
  • Board-level governance
Growth Opportunity

Access-to-Justice / Latent Demand

Massive unmet need held back by cost. AI can unlock entirely new markets.

  • Consumer civil issues
  • Housing, small employment claims
  • Small business counseling
  • Scaled legal clinics
  • Productized advice platforms

Key Insights from the Research

🔬

AI Equalizes Technical Skill

Studies show AI assistance helps weaker performers more than strong ones. The value shifts from technical drafting ability to judgment, strategy, and client skills. (Choi, Monahan & Schwarcz, 2023)

💰

ALSPs Are Growing Fast

Alternative Legal Service Providers grew to $28.5B by 2023, driven by cost-sensitive work. This is revealed preference evidence that much legal demand is highly price-elastic. (Thomson Reuters)

BigLaw Rates Still Rising

Large firms raised rates 8%+ in 2023 while demand held. For high-stakes work, short-run elasticity is low—but pressure on the billable hour model is building. (Citi-Hildebrandt)

Position Your Practice for the AI Era

Whether you're looking to productize routine work, leverage AI for complex matters, or navigate the changing economics of legal services, I can help.

Schedule a Consultation